With week 12 of College Football in the rear view mirror, games are gaining more meaning as teams jockey for playoff qualification and/or seeding. Several teams have pretty much locked in a playoff berth, but have games looming over the next two weeks where talented rivals are positioned to act as spoilers. Some of those have playoff aspirations of their own and just need their own upsets mesh with help from other teams to make up ground. Let’s start with the idea that anyone with three losses is not going to make the playoff, and many teams with two losses will be outside looking in as well.
In the Big 12, Texas Tech is pretty much locked into the playoff but BYU will have to beat a good Cincinnati team and hope for some help to have a shot to get in. All despite just 1 loss. In the ACC, Georgia Tech currently is projected in the playoff, but has to beat Georgia and Pittsburgh - or another ACC member such as Miami or Virginia could sneak in. Pittsburgh is out, but gets a huge chance to play spoiler against both Georgia Tech and Miami to close out the regular season. A lot of crazy possibilities from an otherwise underwhelming ACC. In the Big Ten, Indiana and Ohio State are locks, but even 5th place Michigan still has a shot to win the conference. For that to happen, they would have to win out (including against Ohio State) and hope Oregon beats USC and then loses to Washington. The Big Ten looks likely to get three teams in the playoff but there are outside chances for either 2 or 4. The biggest game is this week when USC goes to Oregon for a major showdown. In the SEC, there is all sorts of mess to deal with. Texas is out but can play spoiler against A&M by knocking the Aggies out of a top 4 seed. Two-loss Vandy has a shot at getting in but must beat rival Tennessee to have a chance with two losses. Ole Miss is definitely in with 1 loss, although dirty-dawg.com recommends Mississippi State gets a 15 in the Egg Bowl. Two losses and they might still get in - but it'll be close. Oklahoma looks in good shape after beating Alabama last weekend, except they now have to beat Missouri in the Vesper Bowl this coming weekend. And, almost forgot, a Notre Dame upset to either Boston College of Stanford would make everyone a whole lot happier.
Pro Football Approaching its Own Brand of Logjam
So this is what can happen when the NFL legislates parity based on strength of schedule. Through week 11 (in which most teams have played just 10 games so far) we have the AFC logjam where 3 of the 7 teams so far aligned in a playoff spot were not in the playoffs last year. All three, as it turns out, were beneficiaries of having among the 5 weakest strength of schedules in conference. The Patriots, by far, have benefitted the most - so be wary of the Patriots collapsing in the playoffs. Similarly, the Colts 8-2 record will need to hold up against a much tougher schedule down the stretch - in fact, the toughest in the AFC. Compare that to the fortunes of traditional powers Kansas City and Baltimore, who are currently on the outside looking in - mostly or in part due to having had the two toughest strength of schedules so far in the AFC. These teams are still good and are knocking at the back door of the playoffs, thus creating a pileup at the back and hopefully making a charge that will result in an exciting finish through the last 6-7 games of the season.
The NFC is similar in that the Bears, 49ers, and Seahawks are all in playoff spots so far this year but weren’t a year ago. Just the 49ers have benefited from the easiest schedule in the NFC. In fact, the 49ers easy schedule pretty much extends through the end of the year and they seem almost a lock to get into the playoffs. The Bears are an outlier in that despite qualifying for the last place schedule this year, have actually ended up with the 2nd toughest by virtue of being in a hard division and playing crossover games against the NFC East and AFC North. In the home stretch it’ll be interesting to see if the Bears have staying power to make the playoffs. The Lions and Packers are lurking within a game, each having played very tough schedules thus far. Despite a 7-3 record, the Bears will be challenged to make the playoffs, let alone win the division.
